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'Perspectives' by Escala Partners


Oct 28, 2024

This week Escala Partners CIO, Tracey McNaughton, discusses the upcoming US presidential election, why the polls are often wrong, the bi-partisan support for nuclear energy, and why the bond and equity markets disagree on what a Trump presidency could mean.

(0:57) Tracey, we are devoting this entire podcast to the US election given its importance. It’s been quite a journey so far – two assassination attempts, the last minute withdrawal of Biden, the late entry by Harris. So far though, neither candidate has been able to land a knockout punch.

(2:54) What are your thoughts on the outcome on November 5? What are the polls saying?

(6:26) Why are the polls so often poor predictors of the outcome?

(8:20) We have had quite a bit of volatility recently in markets. How are investors positioned for the election?

(9:42) The betting market you are referring to there I take it is Polymarket?

(12:04) On the issue of energy, the topic of nuclear power has come up again recently.

(13:37) Given its importance but also controversy, how do each of the presidential candidates stand on nuclear?

(14:58) Another issue is trade restrictions. You have talked in the past about the Biden Administration being more America first than any other administration before it. Will Harris continue that legacy?